IMMIGRATION 2008 – THE PERFECT STORM

By Lee Molgaard

Immigration is one of the volatile topics in the current election. "I will secure our borders," "Amnesty," "Guest Worker Program," and "Path to Citizenship" are some of the slogans being bantered about. Crossing party lines and dividing party members, this topic is always good for a fight. Tom Tancredo (CO) and Steve King (IA) in the House of Representatives have had the most hostile view toward recent immigrants although they prefer the term "Illegal Aliens". Lou Dobbs on CNN and most on Fox News plus the "screamers" on talk radio are all good for a new dose of disdain. Senator John McCain and President Bush and others have tried to propose a less hostile proposal but to their political peril. Way out in the hostile fringe are a growing number of hate groups regarding immigration, now numbering 888! The number of these groups has grown by 48% this decade! With this much animosity, one has to ask if there is any legal, moral and political option to be found.

As a nation of immigrants we are caught in a dilemma. We were all a part of the immigration movement at one time and yet as a nation we do need to be able to keep track of who is a citizen. During the time before 1924 when the laws changed, each country had their wave of immigrants, typically lasting about 30 years and then subsided. Tracking the immigration to the US since the early 1800s we can follow immigration patterns from many countries. Two waves in the 1840s included the Irish because of the famine, the Germans because of political turmoil. Other groups included the Poles, the Italians, Scandinavians and, later, Eastern Europeans. The Chinese came during the Gold Rush and the building of the Transcontinental Railroad. Immigrants from each of these countries were fleeing either political or economic hardship. When they arrived in the US the immigrants provided cheap labor. They built the railroads, bridges, dug the canals, and populated the growing factories and sweat shops, and tilled the land. Each one of these groups who were typically miserable for a period of time after their arrival eventually made it into the American mainstream.

Throughout the waves of immigration there were groups and situations that deterred immigration. The Know Nothing Party in the late 1800s and other groups referred to as "Nativist" fought these waves but with little success other than making life miserable for some already miserable people. The most successful deterrents to the immigration waves were World War 1, World War II and the Great Depression. Transatlantic travel was dangerous in wartime and there were no jobs during the depression. We actually had an out-migration for about 3 years in the early 1930s.

Today the U.S. is still a popular immigrant destination for the poor and persecuted. Quotas by country limit legal entry. Family reunification sometimes allows legal entry beyond the quotas. Since these quotas are calculated by prior immigration statistics, the numbers are more generous toward Western Europeans than toward those from other countries. Therefore some quotas are not filled (from Western Europe) while immigrants from other countries are kept out.

Today the immigrant spotlight is on Mexico. The border has not changed since the 1800’s. There have been times when many came to work the fields of California, such as the period after World War II. At other times when the Mexican economy has thrived, fewer people came. In the past decade especially more legal and illegal immigrants have been coming. Because the legal means are very limited, the numbers of illegal immigrants has increased, leading to the dispute we face today. The one thing all parties agree upon is that the current immigration policy is broken. The dispute is over how to fix it.

There are a couple of important reasons for the larger migration from Mexico in the past 20 years. Farmers in Mexico find it extremely hard to make a living and living-wage jobs in cities of Mexico are very scarce. Thus, many are crossing the border for work. Because the process for coming here legally is nearly impossible, many come illegally. Here in the United States we have also had a migration from the farm to cities because of economic hardships in rural areas. Many of us now living in urban areas were farm kids. We have been able to make this change successfully because the US has had a vibrant urban economy.

Today we face the perfect storm with regards to immigration from Mexico. First, in the aftermath from 9/11 the border crossings have become more difficult than ever because of the fear of a terrorist attack. Second, the global economy and trade treaties with Mexico and other poor agricultural countries appear to have had a depressing effect on farm prices in Mexico. Thus, farmers in greater numbers have been moving to the cities or across our borders to make a living. Third, the Mexican political and economic systems have never been models of democracy and economic development. Bribery at all levels is too common and economic development in Mexico is almost nonexistent. Even the typically poor-paying jobs Mexican immigrants take in the United States pay about 10 times what they can expect at home. In comparison to the job situation in their own country, even menial jobs here are attractive to them.

If we were to look at the situation from a completely selfish viewpoint, we might come to the conclusion that it’s "their problem." We could just do whatever it takes to keep them out. However, the last part of the perfect storm is that we need cheap labor for jobs that most people in the US do not want. Despite the fact that we do have unemployment in the US, there will long be a need for entry level labor that our aging population and low birth rate will not provide. The economic development people in almost every state project a need for tens of thousands of laborers in the next decade who are not likely to be available among our citizens. The problem is that if there is no legal way to secure these laborers, the illegal market will continue.

Part of the current Mexican immigration dilemma will begin to be dealt with when economic development occurs in Mexico with decent, safe and living wage paying jobs. An improved Mexican economy, however, is not enough. The corrupt political systems there, including police who collect bribes willfully, make it difficult for the average citizen to get ahead even if there were enough jobs. There needs to be a guest worker program that lets workers come legally and leave legally. At the same time we need to keep track of who is here and send violators of the guest worker program back. The guest worker program itself needs to be reformed. In one recent guest worker program discussed by Congress, a worker would get a card to work for a specific employer or company. If they were fired or they quit they would have to return. This could quickly degenerate to an indentured servant system, allowing the employer to abuse workers freely since the thought of having to return would put the worker in a vulnerable position. A guest worker program needs to be fair both to the employer and the employee. There should be substantial penalties for employers who employ undocumented workers or abuse them.

As of today, it is the fence that gets all the attention – how long, how high and where? If we are only infatuated with the fence and fail to address the dilemmas mentioned above, in 2020 the talk show hosts will still be ranting about the 30 million "illegal aliens" Hot air alone does not dissipate a perfect storm. To the candidates now promising to stop illegal immigration and "secure our borders" we should ask for straight talk and not another tirade about terrorists infiltrating our country – not one Mexican has flown a plane into a tower or strapped a bomb to himself. They seek jobs not bombs.